An Update on the Negroponte Flip

In 1993, Nicholas Negroponte, then director of MIT’s Media Lab, predicted that wired communications would go wireless, and that wireless communications would go wired.  Lack of wireless bandwidth to handle broadband transmissions and the desire for mobility by telephony users would be the main drivers.

So, where are we today?  The situation is not so simple , though I do believe Professor Negroponte was wonderfully prescient.  Predicting the future is remarkably difficult, any accuracy is to be lauded, and just getting the trends right is a significant accomplishment.

As we all know, cellular phones are ubiquitous throughout most of the world.  Few things in recent history have had such a significant impact on people’s lives (easily less than automobiles, but easily more than even the Internet), though the vast majority of homes in the US are still served by landline phone service.  However, the trend is definitely away from wireline phone service and towards even more wireless.

Broadband connectivity in the US is largely through local loop copper or fiber (especially FIOS), but wireless is in the game for data.  Broadband wireless has a role today especially for mobile professionals who need data access when traveling.  And it is great for those in rural areas who do not have a wireline option.  But for most residential and fixed business locations, a wired broadband service is top choice.  Wireless will never provide the scalability of wired broadband connections since every new wired local loop adds bandwidth to the network.

Then there is video, and here Nicholas hit the nail on the head.  Virtually everyone in the US receives their video signals through wired connections today (mostly HFC) because this method has provided better quality (not so with broadcast digital) and a much larger number of available channels.  What is changing today is how people are receiving and watching their video across the wired local loop.  More are receiving their video from online services like iTunes and Hulu and watching it on their PCs, although devices like AppleTV make it possible to view Internet-sourced content on regular TVs.

So, Nicholas Negroponte did a wonderful job of predicting the future.  As with just about anything, the situation is more complicated than can be described in a pithy statement.  What I think we will find in the next 20 years is a continuation of these trends.  More homes and  businesses will have fiber connections, and these will largely carry IP traffic.  Wireline telephone line losses will continue (albeit slowly) with erosion due to cheaper wireless minutes and more VoIP services carried across the Internet.  Mobile broadband services will get better and faster, but they will always lag what is possible across a wired local loop.  The Negroponte Flip will continue heading to its fuller realization.

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